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Research Papers

Publications

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19. Temporary Prosperity or Sustainable Development: The Long-Run Impact of Developing Pollution Intensive Industries (with Hongyu Nian, Haitao Yin), 2023, Macroeconomic Dynamics, [paper].

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18. Market Uncertainty and International Trade (with Haichao Fan and Guangyu Nie), 2023,  Review of Economic Dynamics[paper].

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17. Understanding Local Government Debt in China: a Regional Competition Perspective (with Xi Qu, Jinxiang Yu, and Jun Zhu), 2023, Regional Science and Urban Economics, final version: [paper]

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16. Bubbly Bailout (with Feng Dong), 2022, Journal of Economic Theory, [paper]

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15. Sentiments and Real Business Cycles (with Fei Zhou and Jing Zhou), 2022,  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control[paper].

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14. Flight to Housing in China (with Feng Dong, Jianfeng Liu, and Bo Zhao), 2021, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper].

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13. Greening through Finance? (with Haichao Fan, Yuchao Peng, and Huanhuan Wang), 2021, Journal of Development Economics, [paper].

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12. Bubbly Bitcoin (with Feng Dong and Yu Zhang), 2021,  Economic Theory, [paper].

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11. Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms (with Feng Dong, Yumei Guo and Yuchao Peng), 2021,  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, [paper].

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10. Interest Rate Liberalization and Capital Allocation (with Zheng Liu and Pengfei Wang), 2021, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, [paper].

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9. Trump's Effect on the Chinese Stock Market (with Shijun Guo and Yang Jiao), 2021, Journal of Asian Economics, [paper].

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8. Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (with Feng Dong), 2020, Journal of Economic Theory, [paper].

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7. Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends (with Yi Wen and Pengfei Wang), 2018, Review of Economic Dynamics, [paper] [appendix

 

6. Two-Way Capital Flows and Global Imbalances (with Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen), 2017, Economic Journal. [paper]. 

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5. News Shock, Firm Dynamics, and Business Cycles: Evidence and Theory (with Haichao Fan, Xiang Gao, and Jenny Xu), 2016, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper]

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4. A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles (with Jianjun Miao and Pengfei Wang),  2015, Quantitative Economics, [paper], [appendix], [codes].

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3. What Inventories Tell Us about Aggregate Fluctuations -- A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies (with Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen), 2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper]

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2.  Firm Dynamics in News-Driven Business Cycles: The Role of Endogenous Survival Rate (with Haichao Fan), 2014, Applied Economics, [paper]

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1. Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with a Non-Random Walk Permanent Component, 2013, Applied Economics, [paper]

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Working Papers

 

1. Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China (with Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, and Yuchao Peng), 2020, [paper], a brief summary: [voxchina], Revise & Resubmit at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

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2. A Theory of Credit Cycles in Pandemic. (with Feng Dong and Pengfei Wang), 2020, [paper].

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3. International Credit Cycles (with Feng Dong and Jinxiang Yu), 2022, [paper].

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4. Local Government Debt and Bank Credit Allocation: Evidence from China (with Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, and Yuchao Peng), 2022, [paper].

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5. The Pricing of Local Government Bonds in China: a Bank-government Relationship Perspective (with Xi Qu and Jinxiang Yu), 2023, [paper].

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6. Debt Management and Strategic Interactions in Top-down Bureaucracy: Evidence from China (with Xi Qu and Jinxiang Yu), 2023, [paper].

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7. Bank Capital Regulation and Credit Allocation along Supply Chains (with ​Shu Lin, Yuchao Peng, and Fangxing Zhou), 2023.

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8. Banking Innovations in China: Evidence and Welfare Implications (with Yicheng Wang and Weimin Zhou), 2023.​

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9. Bubbly Cycles of Global Imbalances (with Feng Dong, Siqing Wang, and Zhenyang Xu), 2023.

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10.  Financing R&D (with Chang Liu, Yuchao Peng, and Jinxiang Yu), 2024.

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Working in Process

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1. Uncertainty, Liquidity Constraint, and Entrepreneurship (with Pengfei Wang, Daniel Xu, and Sichuang Xu), 2021.

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2. Implicit Guarantee and Heterogeneous Financial Intermediaries (with Yushan Xu), 2022, draft coming soon.

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​3. A Political Model of Chinese Macroeconomy (with Jinxiang Yu and Zhewei Zhang), 2022, draft coming soon.

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Policy Review:

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1. Saving China from the coronavirus and economic meltdown: Experiences and lessons (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Pengfei Wang), 2020, in VOX e-book Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fact and Do Whatever It Takes. [pdf], link at Voxeu.

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2. Pandemic and Panic: Government as the Supplier of Last Resort (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Pengfei Wang), 2020, ABFER working paper [pdf] in book: Impact of COVID-19 on Asian Economies and Policy Responses.

 

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