Publications
26. Debt Management and Strategic Interactions in Top-down Bureaucracy: Evidence from China (with Xi Qu, Jinxiang Yu, Xinyu Zhan), 2026, forthcoming in Regional Science and Urban Economics.
25. The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China (with Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, and Yuchao Peng), 2026 online, Journal of Monetary Economics, [paper].
24. Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China (with Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, and Yuchao Peng), 2020, [paper], a brief summary: [voxchina], 2026, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
23. Comment on "Inflation and Debt Rollover under Low Interest Rates", 2025, International Economic Review, [paper]
22. Financial Liberalization and Capital Allocation in China (with Zhewei Zhang and Fangxing Zhou), 2025, China Economic Review, [paper].
21. The Pricing of Local Government Bonds in China: a Bank-government Relationship Perspective (with Xi Qu and Jinxiang Yu), 2025, China Economic Review, [paper].
20. Understanding the Distributional Effects of Income Uncertainty Shock (with Jianpo Xue and Zhewei Zhang), 2025, China Economic Review, [paper].
19. Temporary Prosperity or Sustainable Development: The Long-Run Impact of Developing Pollution Intensive Industries (with Hongyu Nian, Haitao Yin), 2023, Macroeconomic Dynamics, [paper].
18. Market Uncertainty and International Trade (with Haichao Fan and Guangyu Nie), 2023, Review of Economic Dynamics, [paper].
17. Understanding Local Government Debt in China: a Regional Competition Perspective (with Xi Qu, Jinxiang Yu, and Jun Zhu), 2023, Regional Science and Urban Economics, final version: [paper]
16. Bubbly Bailout (with Feng Dong), 2022, Journal of Economic Theory, [paper]
15. Sentiments and Real Business Cycles (with Fei Zhou and Jing Zhou), 2022, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper].
14. Flight to Housing in China (with Feng Dong, Jianfeng Liu, and Bo Zhao), 2021, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper].
13. Greening through Finance? (with Haichao Fan, Yuchao Peng, and Huanhuan Wang), 2021, Journal of Development Economics, [paper].
12. Bubbly Bitcoin (with Feng Dong and Yu Zhang), 2021, Economic Theory, [paper].
11. Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms (with Feng Dong, Yumei Guo, and Yuchao Peng), 2021, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, [paper].
10. Interest Rate Liberalization and Capital Allocation (with Zheng Liu and Pengfei Wang), 2021, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, [paper].
9. Trump's Effect on the Chinese Stock Market (with Shijun Guo and Yang Jiao), 2021, Journal of Asian Economics, [paper].
8. Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (with Feng Dong), 2020, Journal of Economic Theory, [paper].
7. Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends (with Yi Wen and Pengfei Wang), 2018, Review of Economic Dynamics, [paper] [appendix]
6. Two-Way Capital Flows and Global Imbalances (with Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen), 2017, Economic Journal. [paper].
5. News Shock, Firm Dynamics, and Business Cycles: Evidence and Theory (with Haichao Fan, Xiang Gao, and Jenny Xu), 2016, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper]
4. A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles (with Jianjun Miao and Pengfei Wang), 2015, Quantitative Economics, [paper], [appendix], [codes].
3. What Inventories Tell Us about Aggregate Fluctuations -- A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies (with Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen), 2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, [paper]
2. Firm Dynamics in News-Driven Business Cycles: The Role of Endogenous Survival Rate (with Haichao Fan), 2014, Applied Economics, [paper]
1. Univariate Unobserved-Component Model with a Non-Random Walk Permanent Component, 2013, Applied Economics, [paper]
Selected Working Papers
1. Inflow-Driven Contagion: A Theory of International Spillovers of Credit Cycles (with Feng Dong and Jinxiang Yu), this version: 2026, [paper].
2. A Political Model of China's Macroeconomy (with Jinxiang Yu and Zhewei Zhang), 2023, [paper].
3. Bank Capital Regulation and Credit Allocation along Supply Chains (with Shu Lin, Yuchao Peng, and Fangxing Zhou), 2023.
4. Bubbly Cycles of Global Imbalances (with Feng Dong, Siqing Wang, and Zhenyang Xu), 2023, [paper].
5. Financing R&D (with Chang Liu, Yuchao Peng, and Jinxiang Yu), 2024.
6. Green Criteria in R&D Policy: Innovation, Pollution, and Welfare (with Hongyu Nian, Huanhuan Wang, and Jinxiang Yu), 2024, [paper]
7. Monetary Policy in a Data Economy (with Zhaorui Li and Francesco Zanetti), 2025, draft coming soon.
8. Data, Bank Competition and Financial Fragility (with Jiahong Gao, Yiyang Xu, and Jun Zhang), 2025, [paper].
9. The Nexus of Entrepreneurship and Credit Market: A Tale of Two Frictions (with Yicheng Wang, Liyan Yang, and Jinxiang Yu), 2026, [paper]
10. Credit Frictions and Industrial Policy: Evidence from China (with Huanhuan Wang, Jinxiang Yu, and Zhiqiang Zhang), 2026.
Policy Review:
1. Saving China from the coronavirus and economic meltdown: Experiences and lessons (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Pengfei Wang), 2020, in VOX e-book Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fact and Do Whatever It Takes. [pdf], link at Voxeu.
2. Pandemic and Panic: Government as the Supplier of Last Resort (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Pengfei Wang), 2020, ABFER working paper [pdf] in book: Impact of COVID-19 on Asian Economies and Policy Responses.